Tag Archives: Europe

The Doomed Euro?

In any normal January commentators offer their views on the coming year. However, most years, after the usual mix of doom and gloom, the world seems to carry on in the same old way.

This year, however, really is different. Quite a lot of the world is already not carrying on in ‘the same old way.’ In 2019 we are going to realise that something big has changed ‘out there’.

The Eurasia Group, political risk consultancy and adviser to the world’s elites, warns in its latest report: ‘The geopolitical environment is the most dangerous it’s been in decades.’ This is the year that events, and lack of remedial action, threaten global stability and risk collapsing the old world order in a way not seen for many years. The post-1945 Pax Americana is crumbling before our eyes as President Trump unravels the transatlantic alliance that has underpinned Europe since the 1950s. Many blocs – NATO, the UN, the G7, G20, WTO and the EU – are in varying degrees of crisis as new global challenges emerge and as America walks away from acting as the world’s sheriff. The Middle East is a basket-case, fighting its own ‘Thirty Years War’ between Sunni and Shi’a with a wary Israel looking on. In the East, China and North Korea are flexing their muscles; and in the emerging world a new breed of hard-line autocrats are taking over in Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines and Hungary.

The world order is changing – and not for the better.

The outlook is bad enough; but to make things worse, a world trade recession is looming. Global economic forecasts for 2019-20 make for dismal reading: 2019 could turn out to be the year that the world economy falls apart, although timing global economic slumps is like watching an oil tanker running slowly onto the rocks.

This is the wretched backdrop against which the European Union is confronting the biggest challenge to its existence since it began as a dream of a single European superstate back in the 1950s.

The year 2019 will be full of important decisions for the EU, as Brussels will have to set a seven-year budget – without Britain’s cash – as well as appointing new leaders to key institutions, and discussing reform, whilst coping with falling economic growth, the threat of populist national elections, trade frictions with the US, plus the challenges from Russia and China. Brexit is merely background noise to the increasingly embattled, unelected and unpopular bureaucrats sitting in the Berlaymont (European Commission HQ).

The EU is fighting on three fronts at the same time, even as many of its member states have their own domestic problems to contain (the French anti-Macron revolution is a symptom of a wider EU malaise):

  • First, nationalism (aka, ‘populism’)
  • Second, the Catalan rebellion and the Visegrad Four’s mutiny epitomise the growing challenge to Brussels’ rule
  • Third, underpinning everything, is the threat to the Euro. Brussels’ flagship currency is in deep trouble

The smiling celebration party for the euro’s 20th anniversary masked the rising panic among the fat cats, bureaucrats and bankers waving champagne flutes for the cameras. They now know that their grandiose plans to cement the EU together by issuing a single currency was a huge gamble and a serious mistake. ‘The house of cards will collapse’, admits Professor Otmar Issing, ironically one of the original cheerleaders of the euro and the founding chief economist of the European Central Bank (Business Insider, 17 October 2016).

For a real monetary union to work smoothly you need a genuine single authority, plus the ability to swing government money around a united economy. Thus England can pipe London taxpayers’ cash to support Scotland, Wales and Ireland; and the US can shore up the Rust Belt states with money from New York and California. Brussels however does not have the power, or the authority, to transfer rich German taxpayers’ cash to struggling Greece, or to get the Netherlands to pay for the million illegal immigrants who are descending on Italy.

The real economic problem is the EU’s ‘Club Med’. Southern Europe’s economic fragility was well known when Greece was allowed to join the euro, after some pretty dodgy accounting. It was always a risky venture.

To take one simple example, when Greece had its own currency, Athens could stimulate an economic slump by devaluing the drachma: suddenly Greek holidays were dirt cheap and millions of tourists brought their spending power to Greece. Not anymore. Athens was trapped into a currency it could not control or devalue, and which the big boys of the EU wanted to keep strong at all costs.

Devaluation of any German controlled pan-European currency was unthinkable. So Greece was told to cut its budget and live with austerity. That meant that the only way Greece could get extra euros was by borrowing – heavily. Sure enough the big German and French banks were only too happy to lend trillions of euros to the Club Med countries. Unfortunately it became a vicious circle, known as a ‘debt doom loop’, between countries with high levels of debt and the banks that hold that debt.

The problem got worse. Big banks have bought more and more public debt from Eurozone countries. However, should the debts not be paid back (‘non-performing loans’ in Bankspeak) then the banks holding those loans are themselves in deep trouble. Now the euro-banks are running scared. Without payment, they could follow Lehmann Brothers into oblivion. The ‘rescue’ of Greece 2010-13 turns out to have been nothing more than a face saving bail-out ‘loan’ to save the big French and German banks. Even the IMF has admitted that Greece was sacrificed to save the euro and the European banking system from disaster in the great financial crisis.

Italy is the canary in today’s Eurozone coal mine. Italian banks hold one-third of the unpaid euro loans; Italy largest banks hold 300 billion euros of bad debt, dodgy securities and off-balance sheet items that aren’t being repaid. Also, billions of euros of Italian government bonds are held by Deutschebank, Commerzbank, Societé Générale, Crédit Agricole and the Netherlands’ ING.

All this could be solved at the EU level; however there is fierce opposition from Northern European countries to swinging their taxpayers’ money around. In 2018 they diluted President Macron’s proposals for greater money pooling and higher spending in the Eurozone. The idea of stripping elected parliaments’ control over taxation, spending, and the economic policies of the nation state was never going to be accepted; ‘ever closer union’ had hit the buffers of national self-interest, as the UK’s Brexit proves.

Without a means to transfer funds and a ‘fiscal union’ by the EU countries (by pooling everyone’s taxes in Frankfurt and Brussels) the euro is at mortal risk. Now the economic storm clouds are gathering to make things even worse. Eurozone economies are slowing. Even the German economy is contracting. Industrial production was down by 4.7 per cent in the previous year leading up to November 2018. This means that, unbelievably, Germany – yes, Germany – is probably heading for a recession. Meanwhile, Italy has been in recession for a long time and Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal are still struggling to escape the last financial disaster. The Eurozone is heading for a full-blown recession; and without the means to devalue, or order ‘government’ spending to boost European economies, a slump seems inevitable. The pressure to break out of the stranglehold of the euro in order to print their own money has never been stronger for some nations.

‘What is clear is that the status quo cannot persist indefinitely if the euro is to survive in the long term’, an LSE blog article warned in October 2016.

This combination of member states’ disillusionment with Brussels, domestic problems, a shrinking economy, massive indebtedness, social and political challenges and the crisis of migration, plus the intrinsically unstable basis of the euro, means that monetary union has failed economically and politically.

Unless the EU27 agree to form a new central Treasury, the euro is doomed. That’s something to keep an eye on in 2019.

Barbarians at the Gates

The word ‘barbarian’ comes from Greek and simply means ‘uncivilised foreigner – person not like us’. Today Europe faces an invasion of people ‘not like us.’

There is a warning from history. Rome may not have been built in a day; but it didn’t fall in a day, either. By 400 AD the rich, self-indulgent Romans ignored the danger until it was too late. Beyond the Rhine and Danube, Europe was invaded by millions of refugees, poor, hungry immigrants, determined to get to the fleshpots of Europe, away from the bloodthirsty hordes bearing down from Asia.

The Huns, fleeing from poverty and a savage enemy, were economic migrants, determined to find a better life west of the Danube. But immigration was to spell doom for Rome. There were several reasons for the fall of the Empire, each one interwoven with the othereven Christianity contributed to the decline by encouraging pacifism. By 400 AD very few Romans wanted to be a soldier and defend the empire’s borders.

Mass immigration posed a mortal threat to the Western Roman Empire for four main reasons.

  • First, Rome allowed its defences to become undermanned and weak. Taxes were not spent on defence but on domestic luxuries and benefits for the plebs; ‘bread and circuses’.
  • Second, Rome’s famed administrative class had become a bloated and self-seeking bureaucratic caste within the state, feathering their own nest.
  • Third, Rome’s economy was falling apart. The Imperial currency was debased, and more and more owned by the richest 10 percent, living in privileged cities, expensive country houses, with an entire ruling class benefitting from the system, whilst taxes for the poor increased.
  • Last, but not least, the immigrant hordes brought their own barbarous cultures with them. Not for them the civilised, sophisticated society of Rome. Instead, a world of strange ruthless gods with its own laws and very different social organisation. Decadent, lazy, corrupt, pleasure-seeking Romans didn’t stand a chance.

Sounds familiar? The fact is that Europe today is facing just such an invasion. Millions of Africans immigrants will flood Europe unless it acts now, warns the European Parliament. This dire prediction is echoed by the Mayor of Lyon. ‘People do not want to live together … It’s difficult to estimate but I would say that in five years the situation could become irreversible. We have five, six years to avoid the worst.’

Europe is sleepwalking into a complete re-ordering of society from unchecked mass immigration in the next thirty years. The demographics are alarming. ‘Millions of Africans’ will flood the continent in the near future unless urgent action is taken. A spokesman for the EU parliament warns that there would be an exodus ‘of biblical proportions that would be impossible to stop if we don’t confront the problem now’.

Population growth, climate change, desertification, wars, famine in Somalia and Sudan. These are the factors that are forcing people to leave.

When people lose hope, they risk crossing the Sahara and the Mediterranean because it is worse to stay at home. If we don’t confront this soon, we will find ourselves with millions of people on our doorstep within five years.

Today we are trying to solve a problem of a few hundred thousand people, but tomorrow we need to have a strategy for millions of people.

The problem is simple; dirt poor many Africans may be, but thanks to the new digital age many of them have televisions and smart phones. They can see the fleshpots of Marseilles, Brussels, Paris, Rome and London. They can see Nike trainers, free handouts, free houses, free benefits and the good life all paid for by the European taxpayers – and they want some, rather than a mud hut and no running water in their neighbourhood. The result is that Europe is facing a migration not seen since the Dark Ages.

Opinion is split on how to deal with this unprecedented invasion. Many Europeans, from Stockholm to Seville, are deeply alarmed and resentful. Others, guided by Frau Merkel’s admission of a million refugees from Syria, are sympathetic and even welcome the invaders. For example, there is now a handy 76-page booklet handed to migrants to evade EU borders. This comprehensive guide is being given to migrants arriving in Italy, giving them tips on how to travel through the promised land of Europe.

The 76-page manual lists train routes, bus routes and maps of road networks for would-be asylum seekers to make their way across the continent without being stopped. The guide, entitled ‘Welcome to Italy and Europe’, hands out tips on how migrants can register and travel to anywhere in the EU regardless of where they first entered and how to avoid the law.

The comprehensive list also offers migrants detailed information on rest stops and food stations, train routes, fares and travel timetables.  It has been described as a ‘complete invasion plan’ for Europe by furious lorry drivers who face daily break-ins to their freight as they travel across the continent. In a chilling warning, worried British politicians raise security concerns that the guide is encouraging people smugglers linked to Islamic State (ISIS), who are already making millions from the escalating migrant crisis.

Since 2015, Brussels has struggled to cope with this influx, increasing funding for border patrols in the Mediterranean, devising plans to fight migrant smuggling and proposing a new quota system to relocate asylum seekers among EU states for processing of ‘refugee’ claims, and to resettle genuine asylum seekers.

Not everyone agrees. Individual countries have re-introduced hard border controls within the Schengen Area and rifts have emerged between countries willing to allow asylum seekers entry and other countries determined to discourage them. The Balkan Visgrad four steadfastly refuse to take any EU ‘quota’ of migrants. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán points out that it took his country 400 years to get rid of the mosque and they don’t want any new ones now, thank you very much, and to hell with Brussels.

He has a point. Mass immigration is changing European societies for the worse. Many commentators now believe that thanks to too many immigrants, Sweden is a lost cause, with massive social unrest thinly concealed beneath a figment of normality.

France is however the most vulnerable EU country. With its population of North African Muslims, the nature of French society is changing overnight. Already France has a population of 6 million Muslims – and it is growing fast. Many Muslim families have five children, at a time when the French birth rate is 1.1. France can therefore expect a Muslim population of 13 million in 2050, or nearly 20 percent of the population.

The impact on society will be profound. Already France has major no-go Muslim areas, mainly in the poorer Paris suburbs, the banlieues. Towns like Marseilles are recognisably Muslim already, with mayors warning that ‘teaching Arabic will create more ghettos.’ More worrying, most terrorists have been French citizens. The reality is that extremist Muslims in France are creating an alternative society, parallel, separate. The danger now is of separate development and ‘internal secession’. The impact on politics, social cohesion and French life can only be guessed at.

Elsewhere others too are warning of the dangers of uncontrolled migration. Britain is not immune either; towns like Leicester, Luton and parts of London have already been colonised by immigrants. By 2100, Muslims will compose about 25% of Europe’s population. Czech Republic President, Milos Zeman has said it is ‘practically impossible’ for Muslims with their Sharia law to integrate into the democratic societies of modern Europe. Zeman, a political liberal, also blamed the notorious New Year’s Eve sex attacks in Cologne, Germany, on ‘Muslim culture.’

The danger to Europe – as we know it – is staring us in the face. The question is, will Europe go the way of Rome, 2000 years ago ….

Brexit: Another Fine Mess

‘I do declare that no foreign prince, person, prelate, state or potentate hath, or ought to have jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence or authority within this Realm.’  The Bill of Rights (English Parliament, 1689)

‘Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into!’ Laurel and Hardy’s catchphrase seems particularly appropriate as Britain approaches Brexit, due on 29 March 2019.

Few of us can remember a more confused and troublesome time in politics. From Donald Trump’s surprise election as president, to Italy throwing its Euros out of the pram; and from Korea’s nuclear threats to the collapse of ISIS, none of these cataclysmic events has caused as much heart-searching among Britons as the vote to leave the European Union: Brexit.

It is important to record two key facts from the start; first, the vote was on the largest turn out in British electoral history, with 30 million voting and a majority of over one million to leave. Second, the very generation that voted the UK to join the European Common Market back in the 1970s was the very generation that voted to quit forty years later. (Under forties mainly voted to remain.)

This poses the question, what has changed? The answer is simply, Europe. What Britons joined as a Common Market has morphed into something quite different. Today’s EU has taken on all the trappings of a superstate, with its own flag, anthem, currency, budget, courts, diplomatic representation, unelected bureaucracy in Brussels, border police, and is even trying to build its own army. What we see today is not the Common Market Britons thought they were joining back in the 1970s. The electorate was tricked into joining Europe – and quite deliberately, too.

We now know from three impeccable sources that what Christopher Booker called The Great Deception was based on a barefaced lie. Sir Edward Heath, the British Prime Minister who took Britain into the Common Market, lied consistently to the British people about the true consequences of joining Europe. He knew he was signing away Britain as an independent power. He admitted it years afterwards. Moreover, his highly classified Foreign Office briefing notes are now available (FCO 30/1048, April 1971) and confirm his lies beyond all argument. Sir Con O’Neill, the Whitehall mandarin behind this astonishing briefing paper, warned Heath that Britain would, by ceding judicial and executive powers, eventually end up as little more than a vassal state taking orders from Brussels. They knew: and so did Heath. O’Neill advised Heath to ‘swallow the lot and swallow it now’, according to the hitherto secret official record of the EEC talks.

Astonishingly, the faceless authors behind the briefing paper made an even more sinister recommendation; they advised ministers to hide the truth from the British public. The result of this deception has been that successive governments have deliberately kept the British public in the dark about what EEC membership really meant, hoping that it would one day be too late to leave. What Heath and the civil service never anticipated was that sooner or later the British public would see though the fraud and vote to quit Europe in a fiercely contested referendum half a century later.

Britons cannot pretend that they were not warned. There can be no doubt that the avowed purpose of the EU has always been to create a single European super-state, governed from Brussels, absorbing formerly independent and autonomous nation states. But don’t just take my word for it. Here are some quotes from European politicians over the years to confirm the point:

‘A United States of Europe is our goal’. Arthur Salter and Jean Monnet, 1923.

‘Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.’  Jean Monnet, 1952.

‘We have sown a seed … Instead of a half-formed Europe, we have a Europe with a legal entity, with a single currency, common justice, a Europe which is about to have its own defence.’ Valery Giscard d’Estaing, President of the EU Convention, June 2003

‘The European Union is a state under construction.’ Elmar Brok, European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs.

‘We need a true political union … we need to build a United States of Europe with the Commission as government and two chambers – the European Parliament and a “Senate” of Member States … European Parliament elections are more important than national elections …’ Viviane Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission, January 2014

Even the UK politician, Kenneth Clarke, former Conservative Chancellor, in a rare moment of honesty from a British politician takes a similar view:

‘I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe.’ International Currency Review, Vol 23 No 4, 1996

All this flatly contradicts Heath’s famous 1971 speech on joining the Common Market.

‘There are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty, even that we shall begin to lose our national identity. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified and exaggerated ….’

If ever there is proof of a lie to the British electorate, the evidence is clear. Heath arguably committed an act of treason. He deliberately misled the British people and betrayed the Queen into breaking her Coronation Oath. Today’s inevitable backlash from a badly mis-sold electorate is what has fuelled the uncivil battle over Brexit faced by Theresa May.

Unfortunately for her, time to come up with a workable exit EU strategy is fast running out. PM May has just a few weeks to devise a new, mutually acceptable solution because, since Brussels rejected her Chequers proposals, she is trapped between the proverbial rock and a hard place: between her mutinous Eurosceptic party wing and an unyielding Commission, determined not to give an inch for fear of encouraging other increasingly rebellious EU nations. The former ‘arch ditherer’ at the Home Office now has to make a crucial decision. Britain’s timid but stubborn leader must shake off her rabbit in the headlights diplomacy.

As for the Europhiles, Britain must be punished, if only pour décourager les autres.

Frau Merkel has said so. She and France’s latest would-be Napoleon, President Macron, dare not back down. To do so would unleash a flood of anti-EU challenges, starting with Italy and its dodgy Euro, to be followed by the rebellious ‘Visegrad Four’ nations of Eastern Europe, who don’t want any more ‘refugees,’ thank you very much. The EU line must be held, at all costs. The European Commission agrees, warning that the political and economic damage inflicted by Brexit simply presents too great a risk to the EU.

Because Brussels recognises that the defection of the UK could be the capstone that collapses the EU’s arch. The loss of 10% of the Commission’s budget alone is a grievous blow: but the threat of mass defections and an unravelling of the whole European project terrifies the EU Federalist elites, let alone the nervous European banks. Their gravy train could hit the buffers.

The irony is that this bitter and protracted struggle to stifle dissent and lock the stable door is caused by an organisation that was meant to foster European harmony. The Europhiles and the Commission appear to have allowed their dream of a united Europe to over-ride the genuine concerns and anxieties of democratic voters in free nations. They don’t understand, for example, that the annexation of Northern Ireland into the EU means political suicide for any British PM.

What is now clear is that the biggest change to the unwritten British political constitution since 1689 was based on a politician’s lie and the British electorate was deliberately deceived. It was also legally questionable, according to the Bill of Rights.

Whether you agree or disagree with Brexit is immaterial. Brexit goes to the heart of what the UK is. Will Britain be self-governing? Or part of a new federal state?

That’s why it matters.

The Wolf at our Door

The Assyrian came down like the wolf on the fold,’ wrote Lord Byron in his famous poem about the ancient Persians on the rampage. Well, the modern Persians are on the rampage now; and they are right on our doorstep.

Fortunately President Trump is well aware of the danger; he has slammed the diplomatic door in Tehran’s face, to the fury of France, Germany and EU companies, all suddenly forced to ditch their lucrative contracts with Tehran.

One of the mistakes Westerners make is thinking that the Middle East is run by Arabs: wrong. The Middle East is mainly split between Persians and Arabs; and they don’t get on – and never have. The ancient Persians were the bane of Greece and Rome; it wasn’t until the fanatical Arabian warriors of Islam conquered Persia in 651 that the Persians even became Muslim. To this day Persia – now calling itself Iran (after its Persian name) – is a separate culture, language and even a separate branch of Islam.

Persians are Shi’ite Muslims and believe that Islam should be ruled by direct descendants of the Prophet.  Most Arabs are Sunni Muslims, believing that Muhammad’s successor was an elected Imam called Abu Bakr. The ‘religion of peace and love’ fell out in 661 when Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law, Ali, was murdered. Since then the religious split has widened and acquired political significance – Persians are mainly Shi’a; the rest of the Arab world (85%) are Sunni.

This matters because the modern Assyrians are once again muscling in across the Middle East – and even further. Thanks to Iran, and the meddling Mullahs of Tehran, the great geo-strategic tectonic plates are shifting, and not necessarily for the better. Iran is on the march – and Iran wants a nuclear bomb.

Iran’s efforts to expand its influence are there for all to see. Following the rout of ISIS by Kurdish infantry and American and Russian air power, Iran now controls large swathes of the Middle East, as well as dominating the governments in Baghdad and Damascus, whilst simultaneously intimidating the Gulf States. Through its use of proxy fighters like the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Tehran’s tentacles have now reached the Mediterranean. Iran is busy setting itself up as a regional superpower.

However, Tehran’s real interests are much wider; as Trump warned, we ignore them at our peril. Azerbaijan’s traditional alliance has been with Turkey: Azeris are ethnically Turkic, and the two countries’ languages have shared roots. However, with Turkey now mired down in Syria as a result of Ankara’s paranoia over the Kurds, Tehran is suddenly wooing Baku, because Azerbaijan was once part of the Persian Empire and over 20 million ethnic Azeris live in Iran. Tehran is concerned that the Azeris might try to break away – like the Kurds.

However, Iran’s interests are much wider than domestic unrest on its northern border. Assad’s rump Syria is, once again, effectively a Persian satrapy. This worries Jeddah, because far to the south west, Tehran is fighting a proxy war with Saudi Arabia, the other big player in the region. (‘War’ is no exaggeration. When guided missiles start falling near your capital, that’s war!) The luckless hosts for this struggle for regional dominance are the wretched Shi’a Houthis of Yemen, whose rebellion against their government is being brutally crushed by the Saudis and Gulf States, determined to stop the Shi’a gaining even more power on their doorstep.

Washington is not fooled by Tehran’s manoeuvrings, either. With respect to Iranian aims, US General Jack Keane warns: ‘Syria for Iran is a strategic anchor in the region … they really want to gain more influence and domination of the countries in the area … the Iranians have been conducting a military build-up in southern and south-western Syria .… What they really want to do is replicate what they’ve done in Lebanon, where Hezbollah have in their hands 130,000-plus rockets and missiles capable of reaching Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem. This is serious stuff, what Iran is up to. They certainly want to undermine the government of Israel, create instability and eventually, in time, destroy it.’

Iran’s leaders make no secret of their ambition to emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East and, eventually, the entire Islamic world. Tehran is quite open about its aims: to roll back the influence of the United States in the region and to work towards Israel’s destruction. For example, in 2015, Ali Younesi (a senior intelligence adviser to Iranian President Rouhani) outlined a clear blueprint for Iranian plans, describing Iran’s role as ‘protecting the interests of all the people in the region – because they are all Iran’s people .… We must try to once again spread the banner of Islamic-Iranian unity and peace in the region. Iran must bear this responsibility, as it did in the past.’ Interestingly he spoke of Iran’s past as an empire, and called for a ‘greater Iran’, stretching from the borders of China to the Persian Gulf.

There is however a built-in limit to imperial Iranian dreams: Sunni Arabs are deeply suspicious of Persians. As a Shi’a power, Tehran finds it difficult to win support outside Shi’ite Arab populations. The principal tool of Iranian expansion has been the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by the experienced Mohammad Ali Jafari, an advocate of asymmetric warfare using its elite al-Quds Force, whose prime mission is to create Shi’a political/military proxies in other countries and further the ‘Iranian Islamic Revolution’. The chaos in Syria and Lebanon opened the door to Iran’s take-over, using the IGRC as its vanguard.

Iran’s control of Iraq’s Shi’a Arabs rams the point home.   According to a recent report in the Asharq al-Awsat, the IRGC openly maintains a permanent staff of senior officers and political appointees in Baghdad to manage the Shi’a militias and control the Iraqi countryside.  Similar IRGC units are being set up in Syria and Lebanon.

Now Iran has been caught stirring up trouble in another area of expansion, this time on the Atlantic, a very long way from home: Morocco. When colonial Spain left Morocco in the 1970s, Polisario guerrillas fought for independence for the Sahrawi people until a UN-brokered ceasefire. However, Iran and its Lebanese Shi’ite ally, Hezbollah, have just been exposed running arms secretly to the Polisario and training its fighters. ‘Hezbollah sent military officials to Polisario and provided the front with … weapons and trained them in urban warfare’, according to Rabat. Intelligence reports confirm this meddling. Sunni Morocco has reacted by expelling the Iranian ambassador and severing all diplomatic ties.

However, the greatest danger of all is Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as Trump warned when he scrapped Obama’s 2015 naive Iranian deal. Under pressure from Obama and the EU, Iran had agreed to limit its attempt to develop a nuclear capability in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions. But, as Israeli intelligence has proved conclusively, the Persians lied and cheated. Now, despite EU corporations’ wails of lost profits, Trump has re-enforced savage sanctions to bring Tehran to its knees once again and scupper Iran’s nuclear programme once and for all. Iran’s aims may be ambitious but its armed forces lack any genuine capability to attack its neighbours; so, without a nuclear capability, Tehran’s options to become the bully on the block are limited.

Iran’s long-term strategy is clear: a naked grab for regional hegemony, mainly by controlling proxies. The irony is that Tehran has badly overplayed its hand; Iranian interference and subversion abroad has been too blatant and encouraged international resistance to Tehran’s over-ambitious dictators. Absolutely no-one wants to see the mad Mullahs with a nuclear bomb. Perhaps the Ayatollah should heed the old Persian proverb? ‘Experience teaches us that wishful thinking only leads to disappointment.’

But be in no doubt: the Iranian wolf is hungry.